Fraser Minten and Marco Sturm now need one more break for Boston to cash in on Toronto's first-round pick.

That is the real Bruins angle here. Boston already got Minten and a 2025 fourth-rounder for Brandon Carlo at the deadline.

But the bigger piece of that return is still hanging in the air. The 2026 first-round pick from Toronto is top-five protected.

That is where Wednesday's result hurt Boston a bit. Toronto's 3-1 loss to Ottawa locked the Maple Leafs into a bottom-five finish before the lottery.

So on paper, that sounds bad for the Bruins. A bottom-five finish usually means a team keeps its pick.

But this situation is not closed yet, and that is what makes it interesting. The lottery still leaves Boston a real path to getting the selection anyway.

The key number is 58.2 percent. That is the reported chance Toronto falls to sixth or seventh overall, which would send the pick to the Bruins.

The Bruins may have a real shot at the Maple Leafs’ first-round pick

That is the part Bruins fans should focus on. Yes, Toronto landed in the worst possible zone for Boston in the standings.

Still, the odds are not tilted toward the Leafs keeping the pick. They are tilted toward Boston getting it.

The breakdown in the report is clean. Toronto has an 8.5 percent chance at first overall, an 8.6 percent chance at second, a 0.3 percent chance at third, and a 24.5 percent chance at fifth.

Those are the outcomes that protect the pick for Toronto. But the other side matters more for Boston.

The Leafs have a 44 percent chance of dropping to sixth and a 14.2 percent chance of landing at seventh. Put those together, and that is where the 58.2 percent number comes from.

That is why this story suddenly matters so much in Boston. The Carlo trade already looked like a solid piece of business, but if the Bruins get a mid-lottery first on top of Minten, the whole deal changes shape.

And that would sting badly in Toronto. A season that already collapsed into the bottom five would then hand a valuable pick to a division rival.

The lottery is set for May 5, and that date now carries real weight for the Bruins. Boston cannot control it anymore, but it still has better odds than not to end up with Toronto's first-rounder.

Source: How Likely Is It Bruins Will Get Maple Leafs First-Round Pick?