Don Sweeney has a problem he can't solve from the war room. The Bruins' GM is watching Tuesday night's NHL Draft Lottery hoping Toronto's first-round pick falls right where Boston needs it.

Here's the math. The Maple Leafs pick is top-five protected. If it stays inside the top five, the Bruins get nothing this June. If it slides to sixth or later, Boston cashes in.

Toronto finished 32-36-14, dead last in the Atlantic, with 78 points and a goal differential of -46. That's enough to land them at 28th overall heading into the draw.

The Leafs hold an 8.5% chance to win the No. 1 pick. They have real odds to climb into the top five. Every ball that bounces their way is a ball that drops out of Boston's pocket.

This pick is the back end of the Brandon Carlo trade from March 2025, the deal that also brought Fraser Minten to Boston. Sweeney bet on Toronto being good. Toronto was not good.

The lottery starts at 7 p.m. ET out of Secaucus. Two draws, one for first overall, one for second. The longer Toronto stays off the screen, the better Boston's night gets.

Marco Sturm's group keeps eight picks if the math holds

The Bruins' first season under Marco Sturm produced a 45-27-10 record and 100 points, good for eighth overall. They finished plus-22 on the year and went 29-11-1 at home.

They went 2-1 against Toronto this season, including a 5-3 win at Scotiabank Arena in November. That kind of head-to-head dominance over a divisional rival is exactly why Sweeney made the trade in the first place.

Eight picks in this draft, if the lottery cooperates. Two firsts, a second, a third, three fourths, and a seventh. That's real ammunition for a team that needs to retool the bottom six.

But ammunition only works if you actually receive it. And the Leafs, true to form, found a way to make their own fans nervous and Boston's front office sweat at the same time.

What does Sweeney do if the pick stays in Toronto? That conversation becomes very different by Wednesday morning.